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🤯🤯A New Paradigm shift for $IREN🤯🤯
I don't use the mind blown emoji often, but when I have used it, like I did for $IREN's BTC mining fleet around the same time last year, the predictions came out almost exactly to be true. It transformed IREN into a FCF machine.
After the recent $IREN earnings call I was just as mind-blown by what they had announced in their guidance. The guidance is just as ambitious as their accelerated EH growth guidance in the May 2024 earnings call. However, this is arguably an even much more ambitious plan for $IREN, since it's entering into an arena that is far more complex than BTC mining. IREN has a clear line of sight to become the most dominant neocloud, essentially becoming a hyperscaler themselves.
I didn't post anything immediately after the earnings call in part because it was just too much information to digest, and it took some time to verify some of the numbers and guidance $IREN had just released.
Another reason I didn't want to post anything yet was because I wanted to watch the @powermining_BTC interview with @danroberts0101 to add further commentary to the earnings call. Although @cazenove_uk and @McnallieM have to remain objective to the subjects that they cover, they do seem to have a very good relationship with Dan Roberts. In the previous post earnings interview, Dan Roberts provided much further detail than he did during the earnings call. Some of that may be due to time constraints, but I suspected he would do something similar again and he didn't disappoint.
After the $WULF deal with FluidStack and Goolge, I had called it a watershed moment for BTC miners looking for colocation deals, as it's the first time a deal involved a hypscaler, albeit through a proxy. I termed it a "hyperscaler proxy" deal, and wondered if the next iteration of deals would be the coveted "hyperscaler direct" deal.
$IREN did not announce any colocation deals for this earnings call. However, their guidance and plan is just as much a watershed moment as any of the previous deals. I think it would be more accurate to call this a paradigm shift, as IREN isn't just looking to do colocation deals with a hyperscaler, they have the clear ambitions to become one itself. This something that none of the other BTC miners can ever even attempt to do, let alone getting the process started by ordering 9000 Blackwell GPUs in the past 2 months. Dan Roberts proudly paraphrases something similar during his interview with Power Mining, and rightfully so.
I had previously envisioned the iterations of deals would be in this type of sequence:
Neocloud➡️Hyperscaler Proxy➡️ Hyperscaler Direct
However, I did not anticipate that $IREN would break this mold and go for the paradigm shift. They are the only BTC miner that is capable of doing this.
Just at the Prince George facility alone, IREN has a line of sight to grow the GPU fleet to 20k+. At their BC sites combined, it would be more than 60k GPUs. At Horizon 1 alone, it would be 19k GPUs. At SW, it would be a staggering 600k GPUs. PG is already slated to add 9k Blackwells in service by EOY, and have the total fleet at 10.9 GPUs. I suspect that they'll order another 9k Blackwells and reach their 20k opportunity at PG by end of H1 2026. This will be staggering growth by IREN once again, but in the AI/HPC domain.
On the McNallie interview, Dan also clarified that the GPUs are leased rather than purchased, but they do have the ability to buy them after the lease at a very nominal value such as $1, or the lower of whatever residual value is left or fair market value. This is done for flexibility if the pace of hardware change is more than anticipated.
IMO, the most important slide in the entire deck is the following:
This claimed to have a 2 year payback for the GPUs and 3 year payback for the GPUs + Infra. If these claims are true, and the napkin math is indeed mathing, then we are looking at company valuations of the biggest neoclouds and beyond. ...




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