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₿en Gagnon AKA Hashoveride
Ben Gagnon (黄比特) Chief Executive Officer at Bitfarms
Opinions are my own
早上好,农民们!
重新发布我昨天的售后帖子,供那些错过的人查看。

₿en Gagnon AKA Hashoveride2025年11月25日
Good afternoon farmers!
Glad to be back on X after my blackout period (technically my blackout ended Monday the 17th but I had a very busy week speaking with institutional investors and revising our strategy through 2030). Because so much has happened since I entered blackout I would like to provide my thoughts on the market in the interim.
The macro environment for the last few weeks has obviously been weak but when you are dealing with multi-year infrastructure projects and decade-long investment cycles short-term market conditions do not impact long-term fundamentals. To the contrary, panic in the markets like we have been seeing for a few weeks is exactly what is needed to test support levels, hit a reset in charts, establish new entry positions, cut interest rates, restart QE and go risk on into midterms which I strongly believe is coming in the months ahead. This is a very bullish setup for 2026.
In times like these it’s important to take a step back and see the forest through the trees. Take a look at the charts attached that show the universe of publicly traded companies that I am following in HPC/AI (QTD and YTD). As of the time of writing this we are basically flat QTD (albeit down from a peak over $6 in October) and we are up ~73% YTD. Almost everyone is up YTD but QTD performance has pulled back across the board.
Emerging markets like HPC/AI are incredibly volatile and without volatility you would have no reward as an investor. Case in point take a look at $AMZN who has one of the biggest data center business in the world but diversification as one of the largest retailers in the world. They have one of the best performances QTD up 2.7% but they are at the bottom of the barrel YTD only up 2.6%. With risk comes reward and YTD $BITF is outperforming the biggest names $GOOGL, $NVDA, $ORCL, $MSFT, $AMZN, $META and $BTC. Why? Because we are solving a very valuable problem, the bottleneck that is slowing down the growth of HPC/AI and the value created in solving that problem is transformative.
At Bitfarms we believe that the biggest limitation between humans and computers/data is the interface. We also believe that improving the interface drives humanity forward.
In the early days you had to write computer programs with index cards that you punched holes in and had to arrange in meticulous order. When programming went from that to human language it significantly improved the interface and unleashed a wave of productivity and adoption.
When people were first using the internet everything had to be shared directly. When google started crawling web pages and made the internet actually searchable, it changed the interface again unleashing another wave of productivity and adoption.
When Apple first introduced the iPhone, it changed the interface on how we interact on the go. The internet went from something only accessible at a desk to available in the palm of your hand whenever and wherever you needed it. This again unleashed a wave of productivity and adoption.
With AI you no longer need to understand how computers think, computers now understand how you think.
This is by far the biggest leap forward in the interface yet and we haven’t even scratched the surface of what’s possible and how AI will be deployed, utilized and adopted. This is a revolution that will play out over years and decades, not days.
So while mainstream news puts out article after article comparing AI to the bubble, you may ask yourself did the internet and ecommerce peak at the bubble? No, the industry is worth exponentially more today than it was during the peak of the era.
If you could freeze time and walk up to a wave you could stand so close to it that you would only see bubbles but that's a matter of perspective. Take a step back, change your perspective and you would only see the wave. This is very common at the beginning of fundamental paradigm shifts because capital is trying to position itself effectively amidst a new reality at the same time that it is trying to understand that same new reality.
Will some companies be overvalued as capital tries to simultaneously understand and position itself in this paradigm shift? Yes. Does that mean we are in a bubble and AI has peaked? Absolutely not.
The reality is that while many people use AI daily the amount of value created by consumers pales in comparison to the value that will be created by enterprises when they apply AI. And while most corporations are talking about how they will apply AI to reduce costs, increase productivity or restructure workflows most of these are in pilot stages. Compared to what will be done in the coming 5-10 years it doesn’t even round to 1%. It rounds to zero. That’s the wave.
It's important to keep perspective in mind during paradigm shifts. Lots of money can and will be made by flipping and day trading but true wealth is created through vision to see out years in the future and executing against that vision with conviction.
The current situation reminds me of when Mark Zuckerberg was offered a Billion dollars for Facebook by Yahoo. Yahoo wanted Facebook because they saw it’s potential and wanted a great deal. Mark could have made a bunch of money in a very short period of time but he never really entertained the Billion. At the time people thought he was crazy but he wasn't. They just didn’t have his vision for what the future held and the conviction that what he was building was revolutionary. That didn't make him crazy it made him able to do things inconceivable to other people.
This is where Bitfarms is today, looking out at the future of this industry with vision and conviction.
We know what the future holds.
We know the value of what we own.
We know the value of what we are building.
I'm bullish.


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下午好,农民们!
很高兴在我的停摆期后回到X(技术上我的停摆在17日星期一结束,但我这一周非常忙,和机构投资者进行了交流,并修订了我们的2030战略)。由于自我进入停摆以来发生了很多事情,我想在此提供我对市场的看法。
过去几周的宏观环境显然很疲软,但当你处理多年的基础设施项目和十年的投资周期时,短期市场条件不会影响长期基本面。相反,市场上出现的恐慌正是测试支撑位、重置图表、建立新入场位置、降低利率、重启量化宽松并在中期选举前冒险的必要条件,我坚信这一点将在未来几个月内到来。这是一个非常看涨的2026年布局。
在这样的时刻,重要的是退后一步,透过树木看到森林。看看附上的图表,展示了我在HPC/AI领域关注的上市公司宇宙(季度至今和年初至今)。截至撰写本文时,我们的季度表现基本持平(尽管从10月超过6美元的峰值回落),年初至今上涨约73%。几乎每个人的年初至今表现都在上涨,但季度表现普遍回落。
像HPC/AI这样的新兴市场极其波动,没有波动,作为投资者就没有回报。以$AMZN为例,它拥有全球最大的一个数据中心业务,但作为全球最大的零售商之一也在进行多元化。它的季度表现最好,上涨2.7%,但年初至今仅上涨2.6%,处于谷底。风险带来回报,年初至今$BITF的表现超过了$GOOGL、$NVDA、$ORCL、$MSFT、$AMZN、$META和$BTC。为什么?因为我们正在解决一个非常有价值的问题,即阻碍HPC/AI增长的瓶颈,而解决这个问题所创造的价值是变革性的。
在Bitfarms,我们相信人类与计算机/数据之间最大的限制是接口。我们还相信改善接口将推动人类向前发展。
在早期,你必须用打孔的索引卡编写计算机程序,并且必须以细致的顺序排列。当编程从那种方式转变为人类语言时,接口显著改善,释放了一波生产力和采用的浪潮。
当人们第一次使用互联网时,一切都必须直接共享。当谷歌开始爬取网页并使互联网真正可搜索时,它再次改变了接口,释放了另一波生产力和采用的浪潮。
当苹果首次推出iPhone时,它改变了我们在移动中互动的方式。互联网从只能在桌面上访问变成了在你需要时随时随地都可以在手掌中使用。这再次释放了一波生产力和采用的浪潮。
有了AI,你不再需要理解计算机是如何思考的,计算机现在理解你是如何思考的。
这是迄今为止接口的最大飞跃,我们甚至还没有触及可能性以及AI将如何被部署、利用和采用的表面。这是一个将在数年和数十年内展开的革命,而不是几天。
所以,当主流新闻不断发布将AI与泡沫进行比较的文章时,你可能会问自己,互联网和电子商务在泡沫时达到了顶峰吗?不,今天这个行业的价值远远超过了泡沫时期的价值。
如果你能冻结时间,走到一个波浪面前,你可以站得如此之近,以至于你只会看到泡沫,但这只是一个视角问题。退后一步,改变你的视角,你只会看到波浪。这在基本范式转变的初期非常常见,因为资本试图在新的现实中有效定位,同时又试图理解同样的新现实。
在资本试图同时理解和在这个范式转变中定位时,是否会有一些公司被高估?是的。这是否意味着我们处于泡沫中,AI已经达到顶峰?绝对不是。
现实是,尽管许多人每天都在使用AI,但消费者创造的价值与企业应用AI时所创造的价值相比微不足道。而且,尽管大多数公司都在谈论如何应用AI来降低成本、提高生产力或重组工作流程,但大多数这些都处于试点阶段。与未来5-10年将要做的事情相比,这甚至不到1%。这接近于零。这就是波浪。
在范式转变期间,保持视角非常重要。通过翻转和日内交易可以赚到很多钱,但真正的财富是通过远见来创造的,看到未来几年的情况,并以信念执行这一愿景。
当前的情况让我想起了当马克·扎克伯格被雅虎出价十亿美元收购Facebook时的情景。雅虎想要Facebook,因为他们看到了它的潜力,并想要一个好交易。马克本可以在很短的时间内赚很多钱,但他从未真正考虑过这十亿。在当时,人们认为他是疯了,但他并不是。他们只是不理解他对未来的愿景,以及他所构建的东西是革命性的。这并没有让他疯狂,而是让他能够做出其他人无法想象的事情。
这就是Bitfarms今天的状态,展望这个行业的未来,充满愿景和信念。
我们知道未来会怎样。
我们知道我们拥有的价值。
我们知道我们正在构建的价值。
我看涨。


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