Kinda crazy that the big banks debanked a U.S. president. Now I see why Trump likes crypto so much.

A continuing commitment to keep coupon sizes unchanged would slowly shorten Treasury's WAM as the fiscal deficit grows faster than net coupon issuance and is financed by bills. The price is higher short rates and a larger fiscal impact from fed policy.

Fed sets the overnight risk free rate by willing to borrow at the RRP rate. Short rates are then priced off the expected path of that rate. That is why the two year Treasury yield is roughly the market's expectation of Fed policy. Note how 2y swap rate and 2y yield move together

Markets Weekly August 2, 2025 Data, Earnings, Narrative Shift

Shadow Fed Chair coming sooner than expected.

Not a pretty jobs report today... I think this one chart sums up what's wrong with anyone pointing to unemployment as a sign the labor market is "solid." If not for collapsing labor force participation since April, unemployment would've climbed to 4.9% today instead of 4.25%. A lot to unpack in the 🧵

It's looking like Trump was right - just like in 2018.

Miss and yuge downward revision in last month's numbers. Looks like Waller and Bowman are right to be cautious on the labor market.

July 2025 FOMC Debrief With Felix, Bob, and Brent

This presser is making someone important very upset.