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Steve Hou
量化研究@Bloomberg,我自己的觀點。永遠好奇,但也“非常樸素”(根據 Chamath Palihapitiya 的說法)。
我對Mike Green的文章表達了懷疑。現在我也想說,我理解他所要表達的意思,以及為什麼這麼多人對他的訊息產生共鳴:國家福利制度及其所有的「收入水平截止」規則可能會產生扭曲的激勵,讓勤奮工作的人受到懲罰,而偏向那些通過賺取較少收入而獲得福利的人。
這一點顯然是正確的,並且在學術公共財政文獻中有極好的記錄。事實上,最好的統計因果識別工具之一被稱為「折點和缺口」,經濟計量學家觀察人們在福利截止點附近的行為,作為理性的經濟代理。我並不是在捍衛現狀。我認為逐步淘汰的福利規則比硬性截止的規則要好得多,因為後者會產生扭曲的激勵。事實上,這也是為什麼福利規則會根據收入水平逐步淘汰。
現在,還有其他考量:實施和採用的複雜性。有時候,如果某個計劃的規則變得過於複雜,會使實施變得困難,打擊合法參與,同時邀請濫用。我們剛經歷了一次巨大的通脹衝擊,這個問題暴露並加劇了系統的許多缺陷,扭曲了相對價格。商品價格衝擊是即時的,並且也會迅速回落。服務價格則通過工資調整得更慢,並受到Baumol生產力病的影響。
我所說的並不是要否認許多人面臨的「生活成本危機」。相反,我想指出問題的本質並不是「貧困線」急劇上升,而是我們需要對社會經濟機構進行修正,包括勞動市場和城市改革,以提供對現代城市生活至關重要的服務,使其變得可負擔。「掙扎著維持生計」並不等同於客觀貧困。即使在相對較高的收入水平下也可能發生。你可以輕易構想出一個情境,兩位成人和兩個孩子的家庭即使在紐約市年收入20萬美元也會掙扎。
現在,自由意志主義者會急於告訴我,問題在於「政府干預」的任何形式。如果我們簡單地消除了所有政府干預和福利制度,讓自由市場發揮其魔力,我對此無話可說。我的想像力無法延伸到那麼遠。我認為我們觀察到的許多不平等源於人力資本的不平等及其所獲得的租金。在知識型經濟中,最聰明的人可以賺取比不那麼聰明的人多得多,因為現代全球經濟使得規模的巨大增長回報和網絡外部性成為可能,實體勞動和可交易及無形商品的投入基本上是無限彈性的。
無論如何,考慮到我今天早上看到的@CliffordAsness和@GestaltU的幾篇帖子,我只是想補充一下。
祝大家感恩節快樂!打電話給你們的媽媽!🦃😊

Steve Hou2025年11月25日
I’m genuinely bothered by this “$140k national poverty line” thing. The biggest ticket item in @profplum99’s simple arithmetic of survival is $32,773 childcare. If you are paying that much for childcare, it’s not really a case of poverty as much as socioeconomic policy failure esp labor policy in dense urban centers.
What this article spells out isn’t really a poverty or even inflation problem but a textbook case of the “Baumol disease”: the labor intensive low productivity services sectors like childcare, education, and healthcare go up sharply in costs even as the real prices manufactured goods and mass produced food fall sharply!
Yes, the “participation ticket” to middle class life (raising kids, staying healthy, getting to work) is now dominated by stagnant-sector services whose relative costs have skyrocketed. But two young adults and two kids getting by on $140k total income isn’t “poverty”.
In all likelihood, on $140k you’d have air-conditioning, smartphones, decent cars, medical insurance through work, and access to decent cheap clothes, appliances, and furniture.
Ofc this is really a basic needs budget for two young adults and two babies. Now what about two older adults and two college entering kids? Or two adults living in rough neighborhoods and bad public schools and wanting better private school education for their two school age kids? OTOH, if you are DINK (double income no kids), which indeed increasingly many are, you are even modestly comfortable and able to afford some vacation and regular eating out. That’s not “poverty” by any typical definition.
So the core problem that Mike Green spelled out in his now viral article really isn’t “poverty” but a case of socioeconomic imbalance as productivity stagnant services comprise an ever larger share of modern life and we lack the institutions to service it.
That’s what led to the demand for undocumented immigration and cheap labor, which in turn became the biggest rallying cry for populism backlash. People want cheaper labor intensive services, but don’t want cheaper labor. So we must be willing to accept 1) more socialized less efficient solutions; 2) using less of such services; 3) paying more for such services by consuming less elsewhere.
Regardless, redefining the national poverty line and providing typical poverty assistance would be exactly the wrong and futile way to address it as it fundamentally misdiagnoses the core problem. I don’t mean to by any means dismiss the importance of the issue. Clearly it resonated widely for a reason: it’s a genuine problem! But the correct diagnosis is a first step towards a real cure!

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