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The Kobeissi Letter
Discretionary spending is declining:
In 1960, housing, healthcare, and tuition accounted for ~22% of consumer spending, on average.
Currently, those categories account for ~37%, just 2 percentage points below an all-time high.
This comes as their costs have significantly outpaced inflation.
Since 2000, hospital services, college tuition, and housing prices have surged by 271%, 194%, and 108%, respectively.
By comparison, overall inflation has risen 90%.
Essential expenses are eating up more income than ever.
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BREAKING: US tariff revenue surged to a record $29.6 billion in July.
This follows $26.6 billion in June, $22.2 billion in May, and just $8.2 billion in March when new tariffs began.
Over the last 3 months, customs and certain excise taxes have reached $78 billion, more than the entire Fiscal Year 2024.
At this pace, annual tariff revenue could reach $308 billion, a $231 billion increase compared to 2024.
For perspective, corporate income taxes collected last fiscal year were ~$366 billion.
Tariff revenue is skyrocketing.
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This is concerning:
Wage growth for the lowest-paid workers in the US slowed to +3.7% YoY in June, the lowest in 7 years.
That’s more than a 50% drop from the +7.5% peak seen in 2022.
These are workers currently earning less than $806/week.
Meanwhile, the top earners, those making over $1,887/week, saw wages rise by +4.7% YoY in June.
The overall workforce saw +4.3% wage growth.
The gap between rich and poor is widening.
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