today I wasted 10k doing bets across Kalshi, Polymarket, Flipr, other prediction market stuff initial thoughts: > Discovery for markets is broken: way too many markets to sift thru manually. took me minutes of sifting on just a single site to find smt i wanted to bet on > A recommendation engine/FYP-like experience makes a lot of sense for prediction markets: people have tried this with memecoins but the mechanism of making a return on a memecoin means active mgmt, monitoring of the chart, etc. For prediction markets I have a fixed downside, and instinctual thought something is underpriced, and then I just rip it. > my initial vibe is that fixing this fragmentation of markets is the key unlock to driving betting volume, especially for flash markets. 99.9% of flash markets will resolve before an interested bettor finds it. > many teams are competing in the design space of [how do I build the best flash market, most interesting flash market, a niche prediction market] which I think is unwise as you then have the GTM problem of driving volume to these markets. Personally I think Id rather just wrap stuff > for this reason I think the most valuable product to be built is the Axiom for prediction markets — if somebody built a very robust trading aggregator/terminal [trackers, news aggregation, content aggregation, God-view on all markets with best price for similar PMs across all mainstream platforms + niche markets] I think it would be very rewarding to index PM volumes ->>You can also do something really cool in the space of [I see an idea/post on the internet —> trading terminal reccs a PM for you] Other stuff: > im kind of retarded about finding out how to do this but I would love to do parlays easier to do more upside > On Kalshi/Polymarket: Frequency filter is nice except for anything short term it’s incredibly boring, usually just price bets which are usually better expressed via a perp. I guess Kalshi/Polymarket etc dont really care about this since its probably relatively low vol? > i liked that Kalshi surfaces that there is 4% interest in active positions to incentivize longer term betting