現在,按照承諾,來談談人均GDP。由於各種技術原因,這是一個更複雜的計算。但無論如何,幾乎所有的估計都表明,2008年(金融危機之年)到2025年之間,英國的人均GDP幾乎沒有增長——最多增長5%,甚至可能僅為0%。在這段漫長的時期內,英國的人均GDP在實際上徘徊在£37,500到£38,500之間。這是一個非常糟糕的表現,在現代史上前所未有。 原因是複雜的:金融危機的長期影響使得經濟過度依賴金融服務,大規模移民雖然提升了GDP,但並未提升人均GDP,低生產力(尤其是在公共部門,但也因為使用廉價勞動力而非資本投資)。 然而,人均GDP的停滯在政治和經濟上都具有巨大的意義。它解釋了對工黨和保守黨的廣泛失望,對英國一切運作不良的普遍感受,對大多數人來說情況並未改善,脫歐(對現狀的抗議)甚至改革派的崛起(反對保守黨/工黨的選票)。
Andrew Neil
Andrew Neil8月10日 19:27
Recent UK economic history being rewritten to suit current political agendas. So let’s set out some facts. Britain’s real GDP grew by 18.7% from the end of 2010 (Q4 2010) to the end of 2019 (Q4 2019). In other words the UK economy grew by almost a fifth in real terms in the 2010-2020 decade, despite the shock of the Great Crash and Brexit and dysfunctional Tory governments. That somewhat undermines the widely promoted myth of a stagnant decade. From the start of 2020 (Q1 2020) to the start of 2025 (Q1 2025), real GDP grew by 7.0%. So in the past five years the economy has grown markedly more slowly than previous decade. Covid obviously took its toll, including anaemic bounce back from the pandemic doldrums of 2020/21. Brexit uncertainty too. Plus endless Tory shenanigans hardly encouraged confidence. Even so — and despite all that — the UK economy still 7% bigger now than at start of decade. I know, I know. Per capita GDP growth rate less impressive. That’s partly a consequence of mass immigration and low productivity. The purpose of this post is to counter the widespread perception that the UK has endured a decade and a half of stagnation in GDP growth. It hasn’t.
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