I keep coming back to this slide. BEA corporate profits after tax (table 6 NIPA) is only up to end of QII. using disposable income and labor I extend it to date.

this does not have the greatly increased corporate tax due to liberation day onwards, now about an increase of about 250 bil or annualized about 300 bil. this should be netted out tot the above corporate profit.

COST is the bellweather stock in terms of the economy (70% or so of GDP is consumption (PCE) and COST is about 6% of that (wow)) use CP adjusted for tariffs to COST stock level.

COST to CP adjusted for tariffs is in a noisy ban but does maintain a regime. here it is since Trump II.

And COST to Corporate Profits for the long run.

Now Corporate Profits compared to SP500 for the long run.

Adn Corporate Profits to SP500 since Jan 2022.

And since Trump II. It is obvious that explained by Corporate Profits - SP500 is overvalued by at least 30%. There is no support for SP500 until around 4000 assuming corporate profits is critical to SP500 level.